We are so risk-averse it makes us bad at balanced assessments

 

Here’s the question I asked ChatGPT:

 

"I am designing an indoor cascading rapids with a width of 30 cm descending 40 cm over a horizontal length of 130 cm. How much volume of water per minute must be continuously pumped in order for there to be a nice cascading water effect with the water maintaining an approximate depth of 1 cm over the duration of that 40 cm drop?"

 

In a very impressive array of formulas, ChatGPT concluded that the answer was 504 LPM (liters per minute).

 

Then I asked Meta AI the same question. Step by step, she calculated 554 LPM.

 

Then I asked Gemini Chat. and she calculated 0.75 LPM.

 

Then I asked Perplexity. She concluded I needed 12.3 LPM for a gentle flow or 24.6 LPM for a more dynamic display.

 

Finally, I asked MS Copilot. She said 5.04 LPM.

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"OMG, I'm so scared! Whom should I believe!?"

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Accepting and checking for risk

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A highlighted quote that I put on the cover of my book "Courage, the Choice that Makes the Difference," published in 2004, was, "Courage may be dangerous, but it's the safest choice we've got."

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A corollary of that is, "Not accepting certain risks and/or not acknowledging that they exist, can be the most dangerous thing we do."

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After discovering ChatGPT in April of 2023, within a few days of testing it out to see what it could do, I found it making mistakes. Yes, it might make different types of mistakes than humans would typically make, but how much it got right...and with such easy and quick access quickly replaced iGoogle searches I might do. I could also do complicated searches with many conditions that Google search could never understand. 

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And what is going to count as a mistake anyway? Yes, almost everyone could agree with the assertion that at least three of the AI chat boxes quoted above have made a mistake. And short of being a hydraulics engineer, most of us would have no idea if any of them were correct.

 

However, in other areas where even smart people disagree with each other over important facts or issues (for example, is keto or whole foods veganism a more healthy diet?), using governmental force or public shaming to suppress "mistakes" is surely mistaken. Check out the whole phenomenon of safetism and "The Coddling of the American Mind."

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Blind to the opposite risk

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Counterintuitively, when we focus so much on reducing risk and "being safe," we end up creating bigger and longer-term risks.

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• When parents and teachers, concerned about their kids having a good future, put the major emphasis on getting good grades, they often contribute to suppressing and even extinguishing the students' natural joy in learning as well as their ability to be in touch with their own passion and listen to their own heart.

• When each of us, in our desire to be safe from other's blame, disappointment, or anger, don't prioritize taking care of ourselves, then not only do we end up with a life we don't love, but we also damage our long-term relationships with others.

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If we were to provide equal emphasis to what we should be warned against...

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We're familiar with warnings like:

 

"The information provided on this site is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a substitute for advice from your physician or other health care professional. You should not use the information on this site for diagnosing or treating a health problem or disease, or prescribing any medication or other treatment. Always seek the advice of your physician or other qualified health care provider with any questions you may have regarding a medical condition."

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Or in the area of investments,

 

"Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite before making any investment decision. If you are in any doubt about the risks involved with your investments, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor."

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How about this warning as required reading and signed consent before seeing a doctor?​

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"The information provided by any health professional here is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a substitute for independent research and critical thinking. While consulting with physicians or other healthcare professionals can be valuable, it is important to recognize that many doctors receive minimal education in the area of nutrition. Do not rely solely on professional advice for the prevention or alleviation of chronic diseases. Instead, take the time to educate yourself, seek out multiple sources of information, and make informed decisions about your health. Always consider the importance of nutrition and lifestyle changes, and use your judgment to determine the best course of action for your well-being.

 

Remember that your #1 job is to take care of yourself, which requires you to think for yourself.."

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How about this warning as required reading and signed consent before seeing a financial advisor?​

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"Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results. While consulting with financial advisors can provide valuable insights, it is important to recognize that, in general, financial advisors may not consistently outperform the market with their investment advice. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite before making any investment decision. Conduct your own research, seek out multiple sources of information, and use your judgment to make informed decisions about your financial future.

 

Remember that your #1 job is to take care of yourself, which requires you to think for yourself.."

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Before you read or watch the news again, make sure you've read this warning

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Bloodsuckers of the mind: Proceed with Caution!

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Before you continue to read the news, please be aware of the potential cognitive biases that might be triggered by the content you are about to consume. These biases can influence your perception, emotions, and decisions. Understanding these biases will help you critically evaluate the information and protect your mental well-being.

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• 1. Negativity Bias

  • Be cautious: The news you are about to read may focus more on negative stories, which can disproportionately affect your mood and outlook.

• 2. Confirmation Bias

  • Stay alert: You might encounter information that confirms your preexisting beliefs, reinforcing your current viewpoints and potentially limiting your openness to new perspectives.

• 3. Availability Heuristic

  • Be mindful: Recent or sensational stories might be overemphasized, making them seem more significant or frequent than they actually are.

• 4. Anchoring

  • Proceed with care: Headlines and introductory statements are designed to set a strong initial impression, which can shape your interpretation of the entire story.

• 5. Survivorship Bias

  • Consider all angles: The news might highlight success stories while ignoring failures, creating a skewed perception of reality.

• 6. Bandwagon Effect

  • Think independently: Popular trends or widely-held opinions might be emphasized, encouraging you to adopt similar beliefs without critical examination.

• 7. Framing Effect

  • Analyze critically: The way information is presented can influence your perception and emotions, so pay attention to the framing of stories.

• 8. Fear Appeal

  • Stay calm: Stories that evoke fear (e.g., about health, safety, or economic threats) are often used to capture attention but can disproportionately impact your emotions.

• 9. Salience Bias

  • Focus wisely: Dramatic, unusual, or sensational events might be highlighted, drawing your attention more than mundane but equally important issues.

• 10. Ingroup Bias

  • Be inclusive: Stories may resonate with your identity, culture, or community, fostering a sense of belonging but also potentially leading to an "us vs. them" mentality.

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Proceed with Caution

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If you choose to continue to read or watch the following "news,", do so with an awareness of these cognitive biases and strive to maintain a critical and balanced perspective. Your ability to discern and evaluate information critically is your best defense against the potential influence of these biases. Remember that your #1 job is to take care of yourself, which requires you to think for yourself..

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Does your place of worship have a notice like this posted on the front door?

 

Faith proselytizers: Proceed with Caution!

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Before considering attending a church, synagogue, or any other house of worship for yourself, or your children, please be aware of the potential cognitive biases that might be leveraged to influence your beliefs and behaviors. These biases can impact your mental well-being and decision-making. Understanding these biases will help you critically evaluate the information and experiences you encounter.

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• 1. Authority Bias

  • Be cautious: Religious leaders often use their position of authority to persuade followers, relying on the respect and trust the congregation has in them. This can lead to accepting teachings without critical evaluation.

• 2. Confirmation Bias

  • Stay alert: Sermons and teachings may emphasize scriptures or doctrines that align with existing beliefs, reinforcing those beliefs and potentially limiting openness to new perspectives.

• 3. Ingroup Bias

  • Be mindful: Religious leaders often foster a strong sense of community and belonging, which can emphasize the positive aspects of the ingroup and create an "us vs. them" mentality.

• 4. Availability Heuristic

  • Consider carefully: Recent events or widely known stories may be used to illustrate moral points or teachings, making them seem more significant or frequent than they actually are.

• 5. Bandwagon Effect

  • Think independently: Highlighting the number of people who believe or practice certain teachings can encourage conformity and discourage individual critical thinking.

• 6. Anchoring

  • Proceed with care: Initial statements or scriptures presented at the beginning of a sermon can set a strong initial impression, shaping your interpretation of the entire message.

• 7. Framing Effect

  • Analyze critically: The way information is presented can influence your perception and emotions. Pay attention to how religious teachings are framed and consider alternative viewpoints.

• 8. Negativity Bias

  • Stay balanced: Warnings about sin, punishment, and the consequences of immoral behavior can be emphasized, disproportionately affecting your mood and outlook.

• 9. Halo Effect

  • Evaluate objectively: Charismatic and respected religious leaders can use their positive image to influence your acceptance of their teachings, potentially leading to uncritical acceptance.

• 10. Fear Appeal

  • Maintain calm: Discussions of hell, judgment, or divine retribution are often used to encourage moral behavior but can instill fear and anxiety.

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Proceed with Caution

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If you choose to attend this house of worship, do so with an awareness of these cognitive biases. Strive to maintain a critical and balanced perspective, and encourage independent thinking in yourself and your children. Your ability to discern and evaluate information critically is your best defense against the potential influence of these biases. Remember that your #1 job is to take care of yourself, which requires you to think for yourself..

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How about posting this notice on the outside door of every person of military rank?

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​Agents of force: Proceed with Caution!

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Before considering enlisting in the military or, even if you are already a member of the military, please be aware of the potential cognitive biases that might be used to influence your decisions and behavior. These biases can impact your judgment and decision-making process. Understanding these biases will help you critically evaluate the information and experiences you encounter.

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• 1. Authority Bias

  • Be cautious: Military recruiters and leaders often use their position of authority to gain your trust and compliance. Question and verify the information they provide independently.

• 2. Bandwagon Effect

  • Stay alert: You might encounter messages emphasizing the number of people who have joined or the camaraderie within the military, encouraging you to conform without critical evaluation.

• 3. Ingroup Bias

  • Be mindful: Emphasis on the sense of belonging and brotherhood/sisterhood within the military might lead you to favor this group over others, potentially clouding your judgment.

• 4. Commitment and Consistency

  • Consider carefully: Initial small commitments (such as attending a meeting or filling out a form) might be used to lead you to larger commitments, like enlisting.

• 5. Scarcity Bias

  • Think independently: Be aware of messages emphasizing limited opportunities or exclusive units to create a sense of urgency. Evaluate whether these opportunities truly align with your goals.

• 6. Fear Appeal

  • Stay calm: Messages that highlight potential threats to national security or personal safety may be used to motivate enlistment through fear. Assess these claims critically.

• 7. Framing Effect

  • Analyze critically: The presentation of military service might emphasize positive aspects (e.g., adventure, personal growth) while downplaying risks. Consider all sides of the argument.

• 8. Social Proof

  • Evaluate objectively: Testimonials and success stories from current or former soldiers might be used to build credibility and appeal. Consider seeking a diverse range of perspectives.

• 9. Heroism Bias

  • Be realistic: Stories of heroism and valor might be used to inspire you. Remember that such stories often highlight exceptional cases and might not represent the typical experience.

• 10. Reciprocity Bias

  • Stay aware: Small tokens of appreciation or benefits provided during recruitment events might create a sense of obligation to enlist. Make decisions based on thorough research and personal goals.

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Proceed with Caution

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If you choose to engage with military recruiters or leaders, do so with an awareness of these cognitive biases. Strive to maintain a critical and balanced perspective, and make informed decisions that align with your personal values and long-term goals. Your ability to discern and evaluate information critically is your best defense against the potential influence of these biases. Remember that your #1 job is to take care of yourself, which requires you to think for yourself..

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How about posting this warning to children on the inside of the door of every child's room?

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​Parents in the area: Proceed with Caution!

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Before following your parent's or caretaker's advice or instructions, please be aware of the potential cognitive biases they might use to influence your decisions and behavior. These biases can impact your judgment and decision-making process. Understanding these biases will help you critically evaluate the information and experiences you encounter.

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• 1. Authority Bias

  • Be cautious: Your parents might use their position of authority to assert that their guidance and decisions are always correct. Remember to question and verify the information they provide independently.

• 2. Bandwagon Effect

  • Stay alert: You might hear messages like "everyone else is doing it," encouraging you to follow certain behaviors or choices without critical evaluation. Think about whether these choices truly align with your values and goals.

• 3. Ingroup Bias

  • Be mindful: Your parents might emphasize family values and traditions, creating pressure to conform to their beliefs and practices. Evaluate these values critically and decide if they align with your own beliefs.

• 4. Scarcity Bias

  • Think independently: Messages emphasizing limited opportunities or the urgency of certain actions might create unnecessary pressure. Consider if these opportunities are truly rare and valuable to you.

• 5. Fear Appeal

  • Stay calm: Warnings about potential dangers or negative outcomes might be used to motivate you through fear. Assess these claims critically and consider the actual risks involved.

• 6. Framing Effect

  • Analyze critically: The way your parents present their advice or instructions can influence your perception. Pay attention to how information is framed and consider alternative perspectives.

• 7. Social Proof

  • Evaluate objectively: Your parents might point to the behavior or achievements of peers or siblings to encourage similar behavior in you. Reflect on whether these examples are relevant and desirable for your own life.

• 8. Commitment and Consistency

  • Consider carefully: Initial small commitments might be used to lead you to larger ones. Be aware of this strategy and ensure that each step aligns with your long-term goals.

• 9. Halo Effect

  • Stay objective: Your parents might highlight the positive traits of individuals who exhibit desired behaviors, suggesting you emulate them. Remember that everyone has a mix of traits and behaviors, and it's important to evaluate them as a whole.

• 10. Negativity Bias

  • Stay balanced: Emphasizing the potential negative consequences of undesirable behavior might disproportionately affect your mood and outlook. Consider both the positive and negative aspects of any decision.

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Proceed with Caution

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If you choose to follow your parents' advice or instructions, do so with an awareness of these cognitive biases. Strive to maintain a critical and balanced perspective, and make informed decisions that align with your personal values and long-term goals. Your ability to discern and evaluate information critically is your best defense against the potential influence of these biases. Remember that your #1 job is to take care of yourself, which requires you to think for yourself..

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Perhaps the most important warning of all:

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Automatic thoughts on the rampage: Proceed with Caution!

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Before believing any of the automatic thoughts that run through your mind, please be aware of the potential cognitive biases that might influence your internal dialogue. These biases can impact your judgment and decision-making process. Understanding these biases will help you critically evaluate your thoughts and beliefs.

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• 1. Confirmation Bias

  • Be cautious: You might seek out, interpret, and remember information that confirms your preexisting beliefs. The question whether you are ignoring information that contradicts your views.

• 2. Negativity Bias

  • Stay balanced: There is a natural inclination to emphasize negative thoughts and outcomes over positive ones. Recognize when you are focusing too much on the negative.

• 3. Anchoring

  • Proceed with care: Initial thoughts or beliefs might disproportionately influence your overall perspective. Be mindful of how your first impressions affect your judgments.

• 4. Availability Heuristic

  • Think broadly: Your judgments might be swayed by recent events or vivid memories rather than objective facts. Consider whether you are overemphasizing readily available information.

• 5. Self-Serving Bias

  • Evaluate objectively: You might attribute positive events to your own actions and negative events to external factors. Aim for a balanced view of successes and failures.

• 6. Overconfidence Bias

  • Stay humble: You might overestimate your own abilities or the accuracy of your beliefs. Seek additional information or feedback to challenge your confidence.

• 7. Hindsight Bias

  • Acknowledge uncertainty: It is easy to see events as having been predictable after they have occurred. Recognize the unpredictability of future events.

• 8. Catastrophizing

  • Remain calm: You might anticipate the worst possible outcome, no matter how unlikely it is. Challenge catastrophic thoughts by considering more realistic and likely outcomes.

• 9. Filtering

  • Appreciate positives: You might filter out positive aspects of a situation and focus solely on the negative. Make an effort to recognize and appreciate the positives.

• 10. Mind Reading

  • Communicate clearly: You might assume you know what others are thinking without sufficient evidence. Avoid jumping to conclusions about others' thoughts or intentions.

 

Proceed with Caution

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If you choose to believe your automatic thoughts, do so with an awareness of these cognitive biases. Strive to maintain a critical and balanced perspective, and make informed decisions that align with your personal values and long-term goals. Your ability to discern and evaluate your internal dialogue critically is your best defense against the potential influence of these biases. Remember that your #1 job is to take care of yourself, which requires you to think for yourself..

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Am I trying to scare you to death?!

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No, I am just suggesting that we recognize that risk is everywhere. And if you're waiting for the "authorities" to provide you with the warning notices suggested above, good luck with that! Ultimately, each one of us is the only one who can assume the final authority of taking care of ourselves and thinking for ourselves.

 

We do what we can to reduce risk, while also recognizing that, depending upon how to we try reduce risk we might be increasing danger in other more important areas. One of the best ways to reduce risk is to hone our ability to do valid risk assessments. Here are some tools to assist in doing that: Undoing expectations, Undoing guilt, Undoing fear, Undoing betrayal, Undoing indecision, Undoing pressure, Undoing perfectionism, and Undoing worry.

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The Falls and Bridge at River Quế

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Although ChatGPT helped me in other ways in getting my in-home waterworks designed and built, I knew I could not rely on her to calculate the water flow issue. Here's the complete project (without the decoration part being complete). The water flow is just fine. I took a risk and relied on the water-fountain builder to do his best.

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